Over the past decade, Harry Kane has become one of football’s most prolific goalscorers. He has broken Premier League records, become England’s all-time leading scorer and established himself among the game’s elite. Yet the Ballon d’Or has always remained out of reach.
That could finally be about to change.
The Bayern Munich striker is the 13/10 favourite with Betfair to win football’s most prestigious individual award after enjoying arguably the finest campaign of his career. Goals have never been a problem for Kane, but this season he finally matched his remarkable output with the sort of trophy haul Ballon d’Or voters struggle to ignore.
Kane finished the season with 61 goals in just 51 appearances for Bayern, helping the German side claim the Bundesliga title while also lifting the DFB-Pokal and German Super Cup. Individually, he added the Bundesliga Golden Boot and DFB-Pokal Golden Boot to his collection before carrying that form onto the biggest stage of all.
England ultimately fell short of lifting the World Cup, but Kane enhanced his reputation with six goals during the tournament, once again proving he can deliver under the brightest spotlight. When club and international football are viewed together, few players can match the complete body of work he has put together over the past 12 months.
It is perhaps surprising that Kane has never previously finished on the Ballon d’Or podium.
Throughout his years at Tottenham Hotspur, he consistently produced elite numbers but rarely collected the major honours that often separate winners from the rest. His move to Bayern has changed that equation entirely.
His closest challenger in the betting is Lamine Yamal, who is listed at 9/4 after another extraordinary year. At just 19 years old, the Barcelona winger inspired Spain to World Cup glory while also helping his club win La Liga and the Spanish Super Cup.
Yamal’s influence extends far beyond goals. He scored 24 times and registered 18 assists in 45 appearances for Barcelona, underlining why so many already regard him as the most exciting young footballer in the world. While his numbers cannot match Kane’s, World Cup success could prove a decisive factor when voters cast their ballots.
Lionel Messi also remains firmly in contention. The Argentine looked on course to strengthen his claim for a record-extending ninth Ballon d’Or before Argentina were beaten by Spain in the World Cup final.
Victory in that match might have settled the debate. Instead, Messi must rely on another outstanding campaign with Inter Miami, where he won the MLS Cup, MLS MVP award and MLS Golden Boot. The 39-year-old also scored eight goals at the World Cup, second only to Kylian Mbappe, ensuring he remains among the leading contenders — despite playing outside Europe.
Mbappe himself has another compelling case. The Real Madrid forward finished as both La Liga’s leading scorer and the Champions League Golden Boot winner after scoring 42 goals in just 44 club appearances.
Kylian Mbappe won the World Cup Golden Boot with 10 goals for France. (Photo by Buda Mendes/Getty Images)
However, Real Madrid failed to win a major trophy, while France exited the World Cup in the semi-finals before losing the third-place play-off to England. Mbappe’s individual brilliance is beyond question, but the absence of silverware could ultimately count against him.
Rodri is another player who cannot be ignored. The Manchester City midfielder, who has been linked with a move to Real Madrid, was awarded the Golden Ball as the best player at the World Cup after playing a pivotal role in Spain’s triumph.
Few footballers control matches as consistently as Rodri, and his influence often transcends statistics. However, an injury-disrupted club season means he lacks the domestic achievements enjoyed by Kane and several of the other leading contenders, making a second Ballon d’Or in three years a difficult proposition.
Defending Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembele is more of an outside bet this time around. The Paris Saint-Germain forward helped his side win Ligue 1 and the Champions League, scoring in the final against Arsenal before PSG triumphed on penalties.
Dembele also impressed at the World Cup with six goals and two assists, while his return of 20 goals in 40 club appearances would represent an excellent season for most players. In a year in which Kane, Messi, Mbappe and Yamal have all produced extraordinary campaigns, though, it may not be enough to retain his crown.
The Ballon d’Or has usually rewarded players who combine extraordinary individual performances with team success. That is exactly what Kane has finally achieved.
In recent years, the England captain has become viewed as one of football’s greatest players never to win its biggest individual honour. Now, after scoring goals at an astonishing rate, collecting domestic trophies with Bayern and shining once again at the World Cup, he has put himself in the strongest position of his career.
This could be Kane’s year.
