This year’s Edmonton Oilers training camp will feature a new head coach, a three-way goalie tandem, an overhaul on defence and year two of a period of transition on both wings. This will be the first training camp without Darnell Nurse in over a dozen years. Hopes are high, with more than the usual range for possible outcomes this season.

For over a decade, I’ve been projecting the Oilers’ overall and individual statistics. The process has at times predicted goal difference impressively, and also missed by miles in other years. Here’s what ‘reasonable expectations’ have looked like over the past several years.

I predicted the 2021-22 season correctly, but was slow to recognize the enormous impact coach Jay Woodcroft would have on the team’s goal-scoring output. The 2022-23 season (325 goals) was a major outlier for this era of NHL hockey. The predictions lagged in adjusting the normalized scoring totals, although the two seasons Edmonton made the Stanley Cup Final, my model suggested the team would be formidable. Last season, I correctly predicted the goals for, but didn’t anticipate the goaltending issues overwhelming the team.

This season, Mike Babcock will be the coach. He is a dedicated possession coach who believes in tight checking and goal suppression. That should mean fewer goals allowed, while also reducing Edmonton’s goals in looking after the defensive chores. Another factor: age and injury. Some of the feature players are entering their mid-30s, which will have an impact.

Here’s a look at reasonable expectations for the Oilers in 2026-27.

The skill forwards

My projections for Connor McDavid have him off last year’s pace (1.68 points per game in 2025-26) by a slight margin. McDavid could post even stronger numbers if he and his linemates force enough turnovers. I remind myself every season not to underestimate this player, but attention to detail may find him tracking down the puck for longer periods each shift. The key stat for this coming season will come in five-on-five outscoring. Babcock is a stern coach and McDavid is a determined individual. It could spark a change in Oilers hockey we haven’t seen in two decades.

Leon Draisaitl also sees a slight reduction in points per game from last season’s 1.49. The big man won’t need to adjust his style of play as much as the captain, but is likely to take on more of the heavy lifting (more minutes versus elites, more own-zone faceoffs) this season. Zach Hyman is 34 now, and missed 24 games a year ago. He will remain effective, but is projected to miss 14 games in 2026-27.

Matt Savoie and Vasily Podkolzin should continue to progress as offensive contributors. The incremental increases for both men are tempered slightly by less projected ice time at five-on-five (McDavid and Draisaitl’s playing time reduction will affect linemates).

Ike Howard is the most difficult to project in this group. The error bars are as wide and deep as the Pacific Ocean, but this reflects a bet on his making the transition to NHL regular successfully. He won’t play the entire season in the top six, but should land there frequently enough to find his way.

The depth forwards

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Kasperi Kapanen are the two depth forwards who should play substantial minutes on the skill lines. Nugent-Hopkins’ numbers reflect both his bottom-six role and the fact he might play No. 2 centre without the benefit of McDavid or Draisaitl on his line. This could be a difficult year for the veteran offensively.

Jason Dickinson is poised to play more minutes this season, but his offensive output is unlikely to spike given his shutdown role. Trent Frederic is projected to improve year-over-year, but remains a drag on the offence. Max Jones, who will spend time in the minors, may move past Frederic and others this season as Babcock tweaks the roster looking for aggressive forecheckers. Colton Dach also belongs in this category and could also spike past Frederic.

Mathieu Joseph and Mattias Janmark share many of the same skills, so it’s possible one of them sits often. Their skills (penalty kill, reliable play) appeal to any coach and Babcock won’t be an exception. They won’t score much, but suppression will be paramount and they’re good at it (if healthy).

Josh Samanski is the outlier in the group. He has a range of possible outcomes. I’ve projected him as the fifth centre, getting tough minutes and zero offensive push. If he could repeat his two-way performance from last year and move the needle offensively, Samanski would be projected for far more playing time.

Defence

Evan Bouchard will once again deliver as an impact player on the power play, send gorgeous passes to McDavid and help Edmonton outscore opponents at five-on-five. His consistent level of high-end play (he has been elite for three seasons now) will be key to the Oilers’ championship aspirations. His partner Mattias Ekholm should deliver another outstanding season of complete defensive play, although at age 36 may need time off during the season to stay fresh.

It’s reasonable to conclude the second pairing will include some combination of Jake Walman, Ryan Shea and Connor Murphy. Babcock may choose to run his blue line with handedness the key consideration, meaning RH Murphy will play every night while Walman and Shea compete for the left-side minutes. The winner stays on the second pairing, with the other player anchoring the third pair.

The Oilers have a strong group on defence, but waivers could take a bite out of the depth chart before opening night. Spencer Stastney and Alec Regula are likely to be waived or dealt as the team gets down to the roster limit.

Summary of offence

The Oilers will play 84 games next season, up two from last year. My estimates have the team scoring 277 goals next season, or 3.30 goals per game. In 2025-26, Edmonton scored 282 goals in 82 games, or 3.44 goals per game. The bet is Babcock’s attention to detail won’t compromise the offence. McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard lead the way, with Hyman, Savoie, Podkolzin and Nugent-Hopkins chiming in as complementary producers. Bowman has mentioned interest in an additional forward with skill, and the numbers concur.

Goaltending 

The improvement in goal suppression may not affect the shots-against totals, but should include a reduction in high-danger chances. Edmonton allowed 26.3 shots against per game one year ago, a quality total (No. 8 across the NHL, via Natural Stat Trick). The projection for this season is in the same range for shots against, with coverage and aggressive puck pursuit suppressing high quality chances. Edmonton’s high-danger chances against ranked mid-pack (No. 14) and that’s the area Babcock’s coaching style should address in Edmonton.

The three goaltenders will have varying degrees of success. Frederik Andersen should deliver the best performance, but injury issues probably keep him under 40 games during the regular season. Andersen saw fewer pucks with the Carolina Hurricanes last season than he will this winter in Edmonton. It may take him time to adjust.

Tristan Jarry will recover from his subpar performance in Edmonton after coming over in a deal with the Pittsburgh Penguins, but is unlikely to grab the starting job in full during 2026-27. Expect Jarry to carry the bulk of the load if Andersen gets hurt, and it’s possible Devon Levi pushes into a more prominent role later in the season.

Consider this season a period of transition in net. Edmonton’s defence will be better than the goaltending, at least during games where Andersen is not in the lineup.

Bottom line 

The Oilers are poised to deliver a different kind of season in 2026-27. The team’s goals-against per game is projected to be 2.87, compared to 3.23 one year ago. Last season’s save percentage (.879) is projected to improve to .896, and that’s without a dominant goaltender. If Andersen can stay healthy or Jarry can duplicate his best years in Pittsburgh, Babcock’s style will allow the Oilers to dominate in a major way. I predict the Oilers will allow a total of 241 goals.

The emphasis in Edmonton has always been on high-octane offence and taking chances defensively. That should change this season, and if one of the Oilers goaltenders can catch lightning in a bottle, Edmonton could host a Stanley Cup parade next spring. The change in approach is going to take buy-in from every player, and will be an adjustment for viewers, but Oilers fans are a sophisticated bunch and will appreciate a 2-1 win just as much as a 5-4 victory.

The questions are in goal. That aspect of Oilers hockey will not change.