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UFC 330 odds, predictions: Islam Makhachev heavily favored against Ian Machado Garry

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The UFC is back with two more title fights and a bunch of fun matchups scattered throughout the card. I’ll be breaking down both championship matchups as well as another of my favorite fights from the card.

If you want to chat about any additional fights, leave a comment below.

Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry

The welterweight title is back on the line as pound-for-pound beast Islam Makhachev takes on surging prospect Ian Machado Garry.

Islam Makhachev Ian Machado Garry

Odds

-330

+267

SSLpM

2.45

4.78

SApM

1.45

2.86

Striking Defense

61%

52%

Takedowns/15 min.

3.1

0.92

Takedown Defense

91%

80%

Makhachev is 28-1 as a pro, and is among the most dominant fighters in the sport today. He’s an elite wrestler and control grappler, and has proven to be a submission threat on the mat as well.

There have been very few opponents who’ve been able to stuff Makhachev’s takedowns and keep the fight upright, and I don’t necessarily see that changing any time soon.

On the feet, Makhachev is a low-volume striker, but I’ve always liked his ability to control exchanges and limit damage. He lands 2.45 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 1.45 per minute with a 61 percent defensive rate.

The only loss on Makhachev’s resume is a quick KO against Adriano Martins back in 2015. He’s been hurt by others too, primarily Alexander Volkanovski, but Makhachev outboxed Dustin Poirier in their recent title fight in 2024.

Makhachev, 34, may slow down at some point, and if you can force stand up exchanges, at least you have a chance to beat him. But he’s an elite wrestler with a strong process and should continue to win most of his matchups.

“You’ve got one company who owns all of the monopolies — and it’s TKO.”

Garry has the Irish crowd behind him and, like his fellow Irishmen, has a presence on the mic. It’s been his skills in the Octagon that have set him apart. He currently holds a 17-1 pro record. That only loss came to Shavkat Rakhmonov in 2024 when Garry had Rakhmonov on the ropes and in a deep submission attempt late in that fight.

Garry primarily excels at distance where he can use his length and precision striking. He is five inches taller than Makhachev with four extra inches of reach.

Garry lands 4.78 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.86 per minute with a 52 percent striking defense. He’s been hurt badly a couple of times but has survived, and he’s the type to hurt opponents more via accumulation than one big power shot.

Makhachev is likely going to continue his pursuit of the takedown, and Garry will try to defend them and scramble up. At distance, Garry may not dominate but he should throw more volume, and his point fighting style is enough to give him a real shot in extended exchanges.

I am not completely sold Makhachev runs away with this. Garry defends takedowns at 80 percent and just stuffed all of Belal Muhammad’s takedowns.

However, Garry has also been grounded by Rakhmonov, Song Kenan, Gabe Green and Darian Weeks, which isn’t the best list of wrestlers. I’m pretty confident Makhachev can get him down eventually, and while Garry can survive, I’m skeptical he can get back up.

The most likely outcomes in my mind are Makhachev controlling Garry for the majority of the fight and winning a clear decision, or perhaps submitting him. Garry is live to land one big shot but that will be tough, and otherwise will need to win multiple rounds with some volume and damage.

I think Garry is crafty enough and confident enough to be a formidable opponent and a live underdog, but this would still be a real upset if he were able to pull it off.

Makhachev is favored at -330 and I think the odds are reasonable. I’m not rushing to the window to bet Makhachev at this price, but I’m not rushing to play Garry either.

I think this is a difficult matchup to bet on honestly. Makhachev by decision is probably the most likely outcome but you’re only getting that at +120, and his submission prop is +200 which is also live.

I won’t be heavily invested in this fight from a betting standpoint. I think the odds are pretty fair and I expect Makhachev to win, but I can’t say with any confidence what the method will be.

Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson

We have a pair of grapplers squaring off for the women’s strawweight title with champion Mackenzie Dern taking on Gillian Robertson.

I don’t expect Dern to hold this title long, and I think there are a lot of red flags in her profile. While she’s an incredible submission grappler, her lack of wrestling is a real problem.

Mackenzie Dern Gillian Robertson

Odds

-205

+177

SSLpM

3.47

2.71

SApM

3.93

2.86

Striking Defense

51%

56%

Takedowns/15 min.

0.93

2.76

Takedown Defense

37%

38%

Dern only lands 0.93 takedowns per 15 minutes with an 18 percent accuracy, which is atrocious. She’s also defending takedowns at 37 percent, which is just as poor.

When she gets taken down, it’s not a major problem because she’s so skilled from her back. Virna Jandiroba just took her down nine times and didn’t do much with that top control. I still would prefer Dern to be landing takedowns of her own where her top game is elite.

On the feet, Dern has improved greatly but she’s still mediocre, and not super defensively sound. She is aggressive, and lands 3.47 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.93 per minute with a 51 percent defensive rate.

I just worry that Dern will fail on takedowns, get taken down herself, and be forced into striking affairs where she’s not likely to win.

Conversely, I’ve been a big fan of Robertson because she has a process of taking opponents down, controlling them and submitting them. I’ve backed her numerous times throughout her career when she’s facing off against weaker grapplers, and she’s largely come through.

However, I think this is a terrible matchup for Robertson and I would be surprised if she beat Dern.

One primary reason is that Dern is a better submission grappler than Robertson. While Robertson excels smashing weak opponents who cannot grapple, she won’t have that luxury here. If she takes Dern down, at best she might be able to hold her down for a few minutes, but I’d be shocked if she posed any legitimate submission threat. If Dern gets on top of Robertson, though, the fight could be over, and a submission for Dern wouldn’t surprise me.

Robertson is also defending takedowns at a poor 38 percent. So although Dern’s wrestling is somewhat weak, she’s now getting an opponent who wants to engage on the mat and one who can’t defend takedowns either.

Furthermore, Robertson is even worse than Dern on the feet. Dern at least throws aggressively, while Robertson has really never committed to striking exchanges or won them. She has essentially no striking-based wins.

Robertson only lands 2.71 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.86 with a 56 percent defensive rate. Maybe she can beat Dern there, but I would favor Dern.

I don’t want to get carried away on Dern, considering the red flags in her profile, but she should win this fight. She’s a better grappler and striker than Robertson, and even where Robertson is best, which is in top position, it may still be an advantage for Dern who could pose a submission threat.

Dern is -205 to win which I think is borderline playable. At -205, I feel a little uncomfortable because there are ways where Robertson makes this competitive, but I like Dern here, and I’ll probably have action on her.

Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes

One of my favorite fights on the slate, I think Jalin Turner and Kauê Fernandes will slug it out.

Turner is an offensively prolific fighter who has already earned eight finishes in the UFC, including in his last bout where he knocked out Edson Barboza in the first round. He’s a big, long sharpshooter with power.

Jalin Turner Kaue Fernandes

Odds

-178

+138

SSLpM

5.79

4.28

SApM

4.54

1.42

Striking Defense

41%

62%

Takedowns/15 min.

0.75

1.18

Takedown Defense

75%

76%

Turner has lost four times since the start of 2023 though. He retired and then unretired. I’m not sold where his head is at.

Fernandes has been crushing his opponents in the last few fights, after losing by decision to Marc Diakiese in his UFC debut. He’s proving to be a dangerous striker at distance.

Primarily, Fernandes has been crushing opponents with his leg kicks. He’s throwing nearly 32 percent of his strikes to the legs, and opponents cannot take them.

Fernandes has some concerns as a lower volume striker, and his wrestling is mediocre. He’s also a bit small. He is six inches shorter than Turner with four fewer inches of reach.

I honestly like Fernandes as the underdog in this fight, where he’s currently lined at +138 to win. I wouldn’t say this is a smash bet, but my gut feeling is he will win.

If he loses, I’m guessing Turner beats him up immediately. Fernandes has never been finished, but there’s a size gap here and Turner is dangerous offensively.

I don’t think Turner is the best fighting through adversity or in extended fights. More importantly, I think Fernandes might try to destroy his legs and if he can do that, I don’t think Turner will be able to recover.

Fernandes is only absorbing 1.42 significant strikes per minute with a 62 percent defensive rate. On paper, he’s the better defensive fighter while Turner is defending strikes at 41 percent.

Betting on leg kicks is not the safest thing, but Fernandes attacks them, and he’s had real success with them. Turner has long skinny legs and they’ll be easier to land on then his head, so I do think Fernandes will at least try to throw damaging strikes. I like him in singular striking exchanges.

Neither fighter wrestles much so I’m expecting this fight to play out on the feet. It’s still a high-variance bout, but one I lean toward the underdog surprising and pulling off the upset.

This is certainly a step up in competition for Fernandes, so I can understand why he’s the underdog here. I’m excited to watch it play out either way. I’ll have a small personal play on him at these dog odds.

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Tua Tagovailoa’s shaky Falcons debut leaves Atlanta’s QB competition wide open

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ATLANTA — Tua Tagovailoa managed one first down in two series. Kevin Stefanski is still not ready to name a starter for Week 1. And I’m here to tell you we’re all focusing on the wrong thing anyway.

The Atlanta Falcons opened the Stefanski era Friday night against the Denver Broncos in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, the preseason opener for both teams. There have been better debuts. The Broncos won 27-7 as Atlanta posted nearly as many punts (eight) and penalties (nine) as first downs (11).

“Our standard for our football team remains the same whether it’s the first quarter or fourth quarter or a preseason game,” Stefanski said. “Not good enough across the board. That’s why we’ll get back to work.”

Tagovailoa, too, made his debut with the Falcons. After six years with the Dolphins, he joined Atlanta on a one-year, $1.2 million deal this offseason in hopes of finding a second act for his career. He finished 3-for-5 passing for 22 yards in two series and was upset with himself afterward for dropping the second snap of the game, leading to a 4-yard loss.

“What we put out there is not a reflection of the hard work we have put in the first two weeks of training camp,” he said. “It starts with me. I have to be better. This being preseason is no excuse to put a performance like that on tape. Not happy at all.”

Top Plays from Broncos @ Falcons

Even after Friday’s shaky start, Tagovailoa could walk into the starting job in the season opener with little competition. Michael Penix Jr. still has not been cleared for 11-on-11 work in practice, much less a game. The Falcons have joint practices against the Colts in Indianapolis next week, and Stefanski is talking as if he doesn’t expect Penix to be cleared for those, either.

If Penix is limited throughout next week, then he’d have a maximum of three weeks to compete with Tagovailoa before the Sept. 13 season opener. That doesn’t feel like enough time, even if quarterbacks coach Alex Van Pelt thinks he’s been able to get a good look at Penix already.

“He looks really good, throwing it really well right now,” Van Pelt said. “I love his footwork, really proud of the way he has progressed, can’t wait for him to get back.”

Despite Penix’s limitations, he has been active in practices, participating in most individual drills and taking more seven-on-seven reps than Tagovailoa as the coaching staff attempts to even out the overall number of practice snaps.

“I think we do (have enough reps to evaluate him),” Van Pelt said. “He’s done everything he can possibly do to put himself in position to compete. It’ll be a matter of time when that comes. Then we’ll reset and take a look.”

To the naked eye, Penix looks as if he could go now. He dressed out for Friday night’s game and went through the full warmup program. On the practice field, he looks healthy. And he is, he said.

“I have an amazing ACL,” Penix said. “When I went to my doctor, he’s like, ‘This is an amazing ACL. You should never have any knee problems for the rest of your career.’ That’s word for word what he told me. So I was like, ‘OK, I hear that, but it’s like, all right, now do I trust that?’”

Penix must cross a mental hurdle before he’s ready for a full return, he conceded. He’s run this race before. He knows where all the pitfalls are. Penix is recovering from his fifth season-ending injury since the beginning of his collegiate career. He’s been through ACL reconstruction three times. He suffered this injury, the first to his right knee, in Week 11 last year.

“Mentally, I don’t know how to put it,” he said. “If something bad happened to you, right, and you remember every step of what happened getting you up to that point, the next time you do it, you are going to think about it again. Even if you feel like the results are going to be better.”

Good for Penix for being vulnerable enough to admit that. Shame on you if you think that’s a knock on his ability to start for an NFL team.

“I feel like I can do just about anything except take a hit, and that’s what we’re trying to stay away from,” he said.

Penix knows better than anyone else how critical this season is for him. He is halfway through the rookie contract he signed after being the surprise eighth pick of the 2024 draft. Now is when teams generally start deciding whether to pick up the fifth-year option, but the Falcons don’t have enough information to make that decision.

Penix has started 12 NFL games (and won only four of them), and he’s never played under this coaching staff or personnel department. President of football Matt Ryan, general manager Ian Cunningham and Stefanski have to know by the end of this season whether Penix is the Falcons’ quarterback of the future.

That means Penix needs to play this year. Even if Tagovailoa gets the Week 1 start, there’s nothing in his recent play to suggest he’ll play well enough to close the competition. There was certainly nothing in the Falcons’ team performance Friday night to suggest they are going to get off to the type of fast start that would make a quarterback change ill advised.

These Falcons have not been to the playoffs in eight years, and the fanbase is desperate to return. That, though, falls under the category of “wants.” What this team “needs” is to sort out its quarterback situation for the 2026 season. To figure that out, Penix has to start at some point.

It can’t be any worse than what we watched Friday night.

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As 2026 season winds down, Mets will evaluate infield options ahead of 2027

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NEW YORK — There is a decent chance the New York Mets’ group of position players next season looks similar to this year’s bunch with some tweaks.

At first base and second base, the Mets could create competitions, which might help them become less reliant on one or two players at each position.

A lot of time remains before they must make such roster decisions. New York will spend the final six weeks of the season, in part, evaluating its internal options. Aside from third baseman Bo Bichette’s decision about whether to opt out after this season, the Mets’ position-player group doesn’t spark many questions.

One major concern, though, is what they do with the right side of their infield, which could affect Marcus Semien, Jorge Polanco and Jared Young, among others.

“My goal is always to play every day,” Semien said. “I want to be playing well enough for them to want to play me every single day. I understand that they want to keep me fresh, keep me healthy and keep my performance at a high level. I’m so competitive with myself to want to play every day and play at a high level that it’s always going to be my goal.”

The failures of Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns’ major offseason shakeup are felt most acutely at first base and second base. Stearns traded outfielder Brandon Nimmo for Semien, who replaced Jeff McNeil at second base, and signed Polanco to split time at designated hitter and first base as Pete Alonso’s replacement. Neither decision has worked out in 2026.

Why are baseball catchers getting hit in the… groin so much more often?

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The Mets’ production at second base is the worst in the major leagues (-0.2 fWAR). The Mets’ production at first base is the second worst in the major leagues (-1.2 fWAR).

Semien, 35, has two years left on his seven-year, $175 million contract, while Polanco, 33, is signed through just next season after inking a two-year, $40 million deal in the offseason.

For the 2027 plan, the Mets might already be tipping their hand. Semien said that when he came off the injured list last month, Mets officials talked with him about sometimes other players starting at second base. At first base during the second half, the Mets have mostly started Young, who has played well. Polanco, who has battled an Achilles tendon issue all season, hasn’t played first base since the season’s opening series. This month, catcher Francisco Alvarez has logged almost as many starts at designated hitter (four) as Polanco (six).

The Mets could end up leaning on similar timeshares heading into next season, perhaps with an addition or two at second base and/or first base who helps in the margins.

At first base, it wouldn’t be too wild to think the Mets sport a platoon featuring Young, a left-handed batter who holds a .799 OPS against right-handed pitchers (.579 against lefties).

While Brett Baty, a left-handed batter, has drawn a handful of starts at second base the last few weeks over the right-handed-batting Semien, the Mets also boast a couple of infielders among their top prospects in the upper minor leagues.

It’s one potential path, considering their players under team control and a relatively weak free-agent class. If the Mets want to further splurge in free agency, third baseman/outfielder Teruaki Sato, 27, could be an option if he decides to leave Japan (a possible lockout may complicate matters). Perhaps the trade market contains more creative approaches.

In the meantime, over the Mets’ final 39 games, the performances of Semien, Polanco and Young bear watching. Since returning from the injured list July 7, Polanco, who hasn’t played since Tuesday, is slashing just .103/.153/.176 (73 plate appearances), appearing only at designated hitter. Semien said he is running at 100 percent after dealing with a hip injury, but his defensive numbers have dipped drastically, and he owns a .626 OPS, fifth-worst in the majors (Baty’s .612 OPS is third-worst). After starting 20 of the Mets’ last 26 games, Young carries an .845 OPS in the second half.

What the Mets learned at those positions in 2026 is the danger of counting on one player — aside from All-Star-level contributors — when faced with underperformance or injury.

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European Athletics Championships: Fiorini and Perez get race walking world records

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In the women’s race walking, Sofia Fiorini of Italy smashes the marathon world record by more than nine minutes, with Maria Perez of Spain also setting a world record in the half-marathon, at the 2026 European Athletics Championships in Birmingham.

READ MORE: Athletics on BBC Sport

Available to UK users only.

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