Ever since the World Cup draw was conducted last December, the dates and times of the United States’ three Group D games have been etched on the calendars of national team fans.
However, dotted across the schedule over the remainder of the group stage are a selection of games that no attentive USMNT fan should miss, given the impact they could have on the fate of Mauricio Pochettino’s team.
From group rivals to potential knockout stage opponent previews, several fixtures already stand out as fitting into the must-see category beyond the high-profile games that all neutrals will want to catch.
Starting with a Saturday clash that will do much to influence how much pressure is placed on the USMNT in Group D, here is The Athletic’s watchlist of what matters to the Americans, even when they’ve got their feet up in front of the team hotel TV screens.
(For up-to-the-second probabilities and scenarios for the USMNT and all World Cup participants, check out The Athletic’s World Cup tracker)
1. Australia vs. Turkey
Vancouver; Saturday, June 13, 12 a.m. ET
If there is one non-U.S. group-stage match that deserves top billing, it’s this late night matchup on Canada’s West Coast. Those on the east will be burning the midnight oil, but it’ll be worthwhile.
Not only could it decide who emerges as the biggest challenger to the U.S., but it also features one of the tournament’s most exciting young stars in Turkey’s Arda Güler. The Real Madrid midfielder is expected to be the creative heartbeat of a Turkish side many view as a dark horse.
Australia, meanwhile, has become one of the most consistent World Cup nations outside football’s traditional powers. The Socceroos have reached six consecutive tournaments and arrive looking to build on their round-of-16 appearance in Qatar, when they pushed eventual champion Argentina to the end.
With both teams eyeing a place in the knockout rounds, this opener is important and — for U.S. fans — this is a crucial game to watch.
The USMNT must still play both teams, and this clash will provide valuable input about what they are coming up against.
2. Turkey vs. Paraguay
San Francisco Bay Area; Friday, June 19, 11 p.m. ET
If Australia vs. Turkey sets the tone for Group D, this match could define it.
Coming hours after the USMNT’s second game, Paraguay will be on a mission to rescue its campaign following a 4-1 defeat to the U.S. on Friday, while the picture regarding the two automatic qualifiers (who could potentially be joined by a third-place team) will surely start coming into focus.
Win, lose or draw earlier in the day, the USMNT will surely be keeping a close eye on this one.
3. Paraguay vs. Australia
San Francisco Bay Area; Thursday, June 25, 10 p.m. ET
Final matchdays always produce drama, and this one has the potential to deliver plenty.
The dream scenario for the USMNT is that by then it will have control of the group’s top spot. If not, this game that takes place at the same time as the Americans’ meeting with Turkey, would become mandatory “second screen” viewing and have a direct influence on what comes next for the cohosts.
With a pair of feisty teams potentially fighting for their tournament future, don’t be surprised if this ends up being an entertaining one.
Jesse Marsch gives a team talk in Canada’s World Cup opener (Alex Pantling / FIFA / Getty Images)
4. Switzerland vs. Canada
Vancouver; Wednesday, June 24, 3 p.m. ET
If the U.S. wins its group, there’s a 66.5% chance it would face the third-place team out of Group B, which happens to also be Canada’s group.
That means Group B instantly becomes more interesting to the U.S. than many may realize.
An opening 1-1 tie between Canada and Bosnia-Herzegovina, followed by a copycat result when Qatar faced Switzerland, sets the tone for a tightly-packed group that could go all the way to the wire.
For rivalry reasons — and the fact they are coached by former U.S. assistant Jesse Marsch — keep a close eye on Canada’s situation. But the Bosnia & Herzegovina-Qatar game at the same time in Seattle could have similar importance.
5. Egypt vs. Iran
Seattle; Friday, June 26, 11 p.m. ET
If the U.S. finishes second in its group, it sets the Americans up for a direct line to face the second-place finisher of Group G.
That would be one of Belgium, Egypt, Iran and New Zealand, making nearly every match in this group a worthy watch. New Zealand, despite the legend of viral sensation Tim Payne, is entering this tournament as clear underdog of this group, while Belgium, which beat the U.S. 5-2 in March, is the favorite.
For probability’s sake, let’s focus on Egypt and Iran.
These two teams are likely vying for second, and Iran would make a highly-charged opponent for the U.S. for obvious reasons, both sporting and political. The two have a history of meeting at World Cups, but this time around, their governments are currently at war.
This fixture falls on the last match day of the group, and is being played at the same time as Belgium vs. New Zealand.
After the U.S.’s rousing win in the World Cup opener, it’s less of a likelihood, but a rematch Germany looms as a potential last-32 scenario (Jamie Squire / Getty Images)
6. Germany vs. Ecuador
New Jersey; Thursday, June 25, 4 p.m. ET
The U.S. failing to make it out of the group stage (which, after beating Paraguay, makes that almost an impossibility) would be a disaster. Finishing third would be the next worst thing.
There is a 64.2% chance that, if the U.S. does fail to maximize its strong start and lands among the eight best third-place finishers, it would play the winner of Group E — which includes Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast and Curaçao. (The U.S. could also land the winner of Groups I or K, opening up possibilities for Portugal, Colombia, France, Senegal and Norway, among others)
The favorite is Germany, which just defeated the U.S. 2-1 in the final warm-up game for both teams last week. But another potential team the U.S. could face is Ecuador … which brings us to New Jersey.
If this group remains tight and goes to the wire, Ecuador, which played the U.S. to a 1-1 draw last October, will be fighting for a chance to upset the European giant, and whoever wins will likely be waiting in the round of 32.
