Every year, fantasy football managers head into their draft hoping that they land the No. 1 pick. What if they are thinking about it wrong?

We’ve long associated getting the top pick with the best run of luck you can get. But that’s not necessarily true. While it’s nice to take the best player on the board and relax until the picks come back around, last year the best spot to pick from was  No. 4, and the year before, you wanted No. 9.

This summer, the No. 5 spot is the place to be.

Think about it like this. The top of the draft has a handful of clear studs. Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson are incredible. Each deserves to be the top pick in any 2026 draft. There is no wrong answer there.

This year also has three wide receivers who stand out above the rest: Puka Nacua, Ja’Marr Chase and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. All three have a case to be the first WR off the board.

And if you’re picking fifth in your draft, you are guaranteed to get at least one of those five players. (Full disclosure: I originally planned on featuring six players and the top-six picks, but I’ve downgraded Christian McCaffrey from the top tier because of the injury that kept him out of practice Monday and his 413 regular season touches last season, among other reasons).

The benefit of picking at the bottom of your tier is that while it takes away agency and limits your options, it also means you get one of your top players and a higher pick in Round 2.

The fifth pick in the first round gives you the 20th-overall pick (assuming a 12-team league) in Round 2. The options are pretty good there (ADPs are via FantasyPros for a half-PPR league).

At No. 20 you have several great options. You can take the top tight end in the draft. Both Trey McBride (20.0) and Brock Bowers (20.7) are projected to be available there. While there are significant downsides to picking a tight end that high, this year, Bowers could be the kind of TE who wins your league for you.

You could also choose to pair your top pick with an elite QB in Josh Allen (21.7), but that might be too early with several top quarterbacks still projected to be on the board several rounds later. A more intriguing option would be to pivot off your top pick. If you went RB early (unlikely as that would’ve likely required Gibbs and Robinson dropping), you can start building your WR corps with A.J. Brown or Nico Collins. More likely, you’ll want an RB after going WR early. Derrick Henry (21.7) and Jeremiyah Love (26) should still be there for you at No. 20 and there’s a chance that Kenneth Walker (18.7) falls.

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Whatever you do at No. 20, think about that pick in conjunction with who will be there in the third round. The top options at No. 29 are likely to be wide receivers. Chris Olave (28.7), Rashee Rice (29), Malik Nabers (31.3), and Devonta Smith (34) may all be available for you. There should be some RBs on the board too, but the options don’t look that enticing: Josh Jacobs, Kyren Williams, Javonte Williams. All three are at risk of losing their premier workloads. Jets running back Breece Hall (33.7) is the top pick if you want to go RB in Round 3.

The choice looks a lot better by the time No. 44 rolls around. Garrett Wilson (43), Ladd McConkey (44.3), Luther Burden (48), and Jaylen Waddle (48.3) all loom as intriguing picks in the fourth round. It’s possible to start the draft with JSN, Derrick Henry, Nabers and McConkey, which would leave your team with three possible WR1s this season all starting for you, and you still have a strong lead back. Bhayshul Tuten (55.7), Terry McLaurin (53), Drake Maye (52.7), and Jayden Daniels (59.7) could all be there in the fifth round if you need help at one of those positions.

The sixth round could be a great spot to land your starting tight end — Tucker Kraft and Harold Fannin both have an ADP of 68, or you could try to wait for Sam LaPorta (77.3). You can also still land a starting WR; Carnell Tate (73) could be an interesting option. Since 2019, Travis Hunter was the only receiver to go in the top 10 in the NFL draft and not amass at least 734 receiving yards. Five of the 10 hit the 1,000 yard mark. Tate, who went No. 4 to the Titans, will be WR1 in Tennessee.

The key to the first few rounds might also be understanding 2026 draft trends. Running backs are pushed up just a little bit this year. The ADP for the No. 25 RB was 59 last year; this year it’s currently 55.7. The ADP for RB10 is 15.7; last year it was 19.7. Receivers are up, too. WR12 has an ADP of 29; last year it was 31.7. But WR36 is going later in the draft: 79.3 ADP last year and 85.7 this year.

It’s possible to get starting WRs later this year, but you’ll probably have to jump on RBs a little earlier. Parker Washington seems ready for a breakout year after he finished last season on a tear (WR19 from Week 9 on); he’s going as WR32 with a 77.3 ADP. Jordyn Tyson, also a top-10 pick at WR, is going at an ADP of 84. If Alec Pierce is healthy, he could be the Colts’ WR1 and a steal at his ADP (89.7).

Or you could take the opposite approach and try to bet on fantasy trends reversing themselves. The NFL has seen an unusual amount of healthy running backs over the past two seasons. That’s benefited anyone who has taken RBs early in those drafts. If you think that trend ends this year, it would make sense to go WR early in the top rounds, then bet on a number of up-and-comers and backups later to make up ground. Betting big at receiver and making up ground late and on the waiver wire at RB could be the winning strategy this season.

But whatever you do, just don’t draft a kicker before the last round.