The preseason AP Top 25 dropped on Monday, and as usual there’s plenty to argue about. Our Ralph Russo shared his ballot here.
Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia, Notre Dame and Texas make up the top five of the poll, followed by reigning national champion Indiana. What do I disagree with in the preseason rankings? Here are three underrated teams and three that are getting too much credit, mostly for what they did last season.
Who’s underrated?
No. 5 Texas
For the first time in recorded history, Texas is beginning the season underrated.
Only No. 5? Is it because of the schedule?
In idle conversations this offseason, I’d ask coaches who they thought had the best roster in the sport. At least 80 percent of the coaches I asked said Texas. The talent level was already top-shelf. Then the Longhorns added splashy supporting cast members for Arch Manning like superstar Auburn transfer receiver Cam Coleman and a fearsome one-two punch at running back in Hollywood Smothers (NC State) and Raleek Brown (Arizona State), who combined for more than 2,000 yards last season.
Yes, Texas disappointed after being voted preseason No. 1 last year. But I have no idea how zero voters had Texas atop their ballots this year. Nitpick Steve Sarkisian and his red zone play calling all you’d like, but if I were a voter, I’d have the Longhorns No. 1.
Why Oregon is Ralph Russo’s No. 1 team in the AP poll
Ralph D. Russo
No. 7 Miami
The national runner-up had a pair of rough conference losses to SMU and Louisville last year but made a deep Playoff run that began with a road win over Texas A&M in the first round and continued with bowl wins against Ohio State and Ole Miss.
The Hurricanes look head and shoulders above every other team in the ACC. They upgraded at quarterback by adding Darian Mensah from Duke to replace Carson Beck, return star running back Mark Fletcher Jr. and have one of the best receiver groups in America with Malachi Toney, Cooper Barkate and Vandrevius Jacobs. Defensive line terrors Rueben Bain and Akeem Mesidor are gone, but they added All-SEC defensive end Damon Wilson, who had nine sacks last season at Missouri.
That’s only good for No. 7?
No. 11 LSU
Talent wins. And Lane Kiffin has never had a team with this much of it — and maybe never a quarterback as talented as Arizona State transfer Sam Leavitt. Newcomer Jordan Seaton (Colorado) will help protect him at left tackle, and Princewill Umanmielen (Ole Miss) will get after opposing quarterbacks after recording nine sacks for Ole Miss last year. Florida transfer Eugene Wilson gives them a ton of speed at receiver, too.
Too often, preseason rankings rely too heavily on what happened the previous year (more on that later). Last year has never been less relevant in the sport. The combination of distaste for Kiffin and a skepticism for how all this will mesh together might have cost the Tigers a few spots in the poll. But this is a top-five roster, and maybe top-three.
Doubt Kiffin at your own risk with this squad. It’s been more than a decade since he had a team underachieve.
Who’s overrated?
No. 9 Ole Miss
Trinidad Chambliss is back and might be the nation’s best quarterback. He’s playing with Kewan Lacy, who is one of the nation’s best running backs. But the receiving corps is rebuilding, and the Rebels are replacing both offensive tackles. Kiffin also brought a chunk of the staff with him to Baton Rouge, including offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr.
New coach Pete Golding rebuilt the defense with transfers, but he’ll have a lot to prove after an impressive Playoff run fueled in large part by Chambliss’ excellence. A Playoff sprint is different than a season-long marathon, and the Rebels will be tested with a tougher schedule, starting with a Week 1 game against No. 24 Louisville in Nashville.
Should this team really be ahead of Oklahoma, LSU and Texas Tech?
No. 21 Utah
Utah kept quarterback Devon Dampier and running back Wayshawn Parker, but former coach Kyle Whittingham, acclaimed offensive coordinator Jason Beck and star edge rusher John Henry Daley are at Michigan.
The defense had to rebuild with transfers, but it’s hard to imagine the talent level is the same as what it was a season ago.
Utah has historically been an overachiever and maximized its talent for much of the past two decades under Whittingham. Can it continue to do so with a rebooted coaching staff under the promoted Morgan Scalley? Especially in a competitive Big 12? The Utes won 11 games last year, but looking at what Whittingham left behind, it’s hard to see a Top 25 team.
No. 23 Houston
The Cougars broke through last season, but they did so by going 6-1 in one-possession games. Can they duplicate that in a Big 12, where the margins are razor-thin and one-score games are the currency that tell the story of a season?
Quarterback Connor Weigman is back and UH signed the nation’s No. 1 recruit, Keisean Henderson. Plus, running back Makhi Hughes is reunited with Willie Fritz after the two made magic at Tulane. Still, the offensive line is being rebuilt with transfers. Winning 10 games was a massive accomplishment a season ago, but it wasn’t far from an eight-win season. If that was the case, is Houston ranked now?
