Sports
How the Rays turned baseball tradition on its head — and improved Freddy Peralta
With three straight strong starts, trade deadline acquisition Freddy Peralta is starting to look like another success story for the Tampa Bay Rays.
Since arriving in Tampa, he’s made some changes to his mechanics, which have helped him rediscover his dominant fastball. But the changes to his pitch mix might be more fascinating. What he’s doing with his changeup is becoming a Rays’ signature — and it looks like it’s a wrinkle born from insights gained by statistically modeling pitches.
First, yes, Peralta ditched the windup. He also found his release point again, a couple of inches further out in front from where he was releasing the ball with the New York Mets over the last few months. The new release point is a couple of inches closer to where he’d been in the past when he was “Fastball Freddy.” That, and an arm angle that he’d been working to raise since it dipped to an all-time low in June, has made his fastball play up again.
Batters are hitting .200 against his fastball during this strong three-start stretch (two runs and 10 hits allowed in 18 innings), and getting his arm angle up and the release point out further are both a big part of that success. There’s often also a lot of noise and luck in any three-game stretch, but those mechanical changes, at the very least, are likely benefitting him.
Freddy Peralta has made several changes since joining the Rays, some to his mechanics and one change, in particular, to his pitch usage. (Parker Freedman / Getty Images)
But while it’s not surprising to see a pitcher benefit from mechanical changes, it has been more interesting to see Peralta surge after the Rays had him use his changeup differently. Batters were hitting .280 and slugging .449 against the changeup when he was in New York. He moved to the Rays and they decided to turn the dial … up? With the Rays, he’s thrown the changeup nearly a third of the time, a jump of more than 10 percentage points.
Viewed in the context of his entire pitch mix, maybe it makes sense. His slider isn’t moving like it used to, and not getting the results it’s gotten in the past, either. Lefties were slugging much better against Peralta than righties, so he obviously needed something to attack lefties with. Boom. More changeups.
Except that what has really ticked up with the Rays is Peralta’s changeup usage against same-handed hitters. In his first start with the Rays, he threw more right-on-right changeups than he had in his last four starts combined with the Mets.
And that’s something the Rays do a ton of. More than any team in baseball. Way more.
Most same-handed changeups in MLB
| Team | Same-handed changeups |
|---|---|
|
1140 |
|
|
756 |
|
|
627 |
|
|
602 |
|
|
536 |
The Rays picked up Bryan Baker from the Orioles for a draft pick in 2025. At the time, he was a good setup man but was struggling a little against righties because he was allowing a ton of home runs off his breaking ball. After joining the Rays, he immediately turned down the slider usage and ramped up the changeup usage against righties. He’s continued that usage to the point that this year, his slider is an afterthought. Now, he’s a top-shelf right-handed closer throwing a changeup 40 percent of the time against righties. This year, the Rays have already thrown 1,000 more same-handed changeups than the Orioles.
Why is this a big deal? It’s worth highlighting because changeups traditionally have reverse platoon splits. That means that they function better against opposite-handed hitters, so generally righties like Baker and Peralta would save them for lefties in a traditional usage pattern.
When you notice that the Rays are getting more production from their changeups than any other team in baseball right now, you might be tempted to say that they are just bucking tradition and riding the benefit of surprise, but there’s no doubt that advanced scouting has been all over the Rays’ usage pattern as it relates to the changeup. Nobody is surprised any more when Baker throws a righty-on-righty changeup. They’re just not hitting that changeup that their advance scout told them all about.
This could be born from insights harvested from statistical modeling. A model like Stuff+ — which evaluates pitches based on their physical characteristics — creates platoon splits for each pitch. Certain shapes induce certain outcomes depending on the handedness of the pitcher and the hitter. As an example, we can see this in action with sweepers: those very horizontal pitch shapes of the sweeper make it easier for an opposite-handed hitter to see the pitch and make good decisions on it. Consequently, opposite-handed hitters generally hit sweepers better than same-handed hitters.
Certain changeups have reverse platoon splits in the Stuff+ model. The Rays have loaded up on pitchers who throw those changeups, with eight reverse-split changeups on their squad, twice as many as the Padres, who are in second place. Shane McClanahan and Ian Seymour came up in the Rays’ system, but they also added Steven Matz, Nick Martinez, Griffin Jax, Cole Sulser, Mason Englert and Kevin Kelly over time. The Stuff+ model says they should throw their changeups to same-handed hitters, and they do.
When you sort the changeups into those with normal platoon splits and those with reverse splits, a bit of a pattern emerges. Reverse-split changeups, when compared to normal split changeups:
- Have more drop
- Are 3 mph harder
- Have less of a velocity gap off the fastball
- Have less of a horizontal movement differential off the fastball
So now we have a type. The power changeup that has been percolating through baseball ever since Félix Hernández and Zack Greinke dominated with the pitch seems to have reverse-platoon splits, according to the model. Maybe it’s because the pitch looks a little more like a sinker than a floating straight changeup with less drop. Maybe it’s because it has less horizontal movement and is a vertical pitch that acts more like a platoon-neutral curveball than a traditional-split sideways sweeper. It’s not clear exactly why the model produced this result, and the model isn’t going to tell us the causal relationship here.
But using these changeups against same-handed hitters is something that the Stuff+ model thinks should work. Maybe not surprisingly, Peralta has been throwing his changeup progressively harder over the last three starts, perhaps to mimic these great power changeups of the past. When it looks like this, of course it’s a weapon against hitters on both sides of the plate.
Freddy Peralta changeup
Eno Sarris
Having Peralta go heavy with the changeup against right-handers took a leap of faith for the Rays, to some degree. Lefties may have hit Greinke’s power changeup for a better batting average than righties, but once you factored in the slugging, even his archetypical power change had normal splits. Across baseball, changeups still have normal splits most years despite what the model says — although we should point out that this year, same-handed hitters are worse against changeups than opposite-handed hitters, so maybe the memo is getting out to other teams.
This is a model spitting out something that goes against tradition. But it’s been working for the Rays, who once again have a top-10 team ERA despite a league-average strikeout rate. Sounds like a team that loves the changeup.
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Sports
Garcia vs Benn: Ryan Garcia says Conor Benn does not deserve world title shot
Ryan Garcia says Conor Benn is nothing more than an “average fighter” and that the Briton does not deserve a shot at his WBC welterweight title.
Garcia, 28, makes the first defence of his belt against Benn at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday.
The American has consistently dismissed Benn’s ability during the build-up and, after skipping Tuesday’s face-off, has been accused overlooking the 29-year-old.
But Garcia says he is not taking anything lightly as he aims for a 26th win in 29 bouts as a professional.
Asked whether Benn, who has not fought at welterweight since April 2022, deserves the opportunity to challenge for a world title, Garcia said: “Not at all.”
He told BBC Sport: “He’s an average fighter, he’s athletic and it’s his last name. It’s not a shot at him; it’s just the bitter truth.
“I’m preparing like he’s the best fighter in the world. It’s all about preparation and how sharp you are.
“People could say you’re overlooking him. No, I’m calling it how I see it.
“Do you want me to say he’s as good as Floyd Mayweather? He’s not.
“He’s alright. He comes forward and throws looping overhands. He’s aggressive and will make him a rugged fight, but it’s not something I haven’t seen before.”
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Sports
Atomic bomb survivor who became baseball legend – Isao Harimoto dies age 86
Korean-Japanese baseball legend Isao Harimoto, who survived the atomic bombing of Hiroshima, has died in Tokyo at the age of 86.
Harimoto, known as the Hit Machine, recorded the most hits in Japanese baseball history – with 3,085 hits during his 23-season caree. He is the only player in Nippon Professional Baseball League (NPB) history to reach 3,000 hits.
He also hit 504 home runs and stole 319 bases, making him the only player in NPB history with at least 500 homers and 300 stolen bases.
Only three players in Major League Baseball history have achieved the same feat: Barry Bonds, Willie Mays and Alex Rodriguez.
The 18-time all-star player helped the Toei Flyers win their first Japan Series in 1962, and was inducted into the Japanese Baseball Hall of Fame in 1990.
“All members of the Meikyukai express our deep respect and gratitude for Mr Isao Harimoto’s many years of great achievements, and we sincerely pray for [following] his passing,” the Golden Players Club – one of Japanese baseball’s two halls of fame – said in a statement.
Harimoto – whose birth name was Jang Hun – overcame significant obstacles to achieve greatness.
He was born in Hiroshima in 1940 to Korean parents who migrated to Japan during the country’s rule of Korea. Though he lived in Japan his entire life and adopted a Japanese name, he did not receive citizenship until later in life.
As a young child, he was involved in an accident that left him with severe burns on his right hand.
With limited mobility in his thumb and forefinger and his middle three fingers frozen into a curled position, he was forced to become a left-handed thrower and hitter.
On his curled right hand, he wore a custom glove that allowed him to catch the ball.
Yet he could have easily never had the opportunity to play baseball.
A year after his accident, Harimoto was in Hiroshima on 6 August, 1945, when the United States detonated an atomic bomb over the city during the final days of World War Two.
The five-year-old survived unharmed – in 2011 he explained that his mother used her body to shield him and his sister after the flash of the bomb exploding. Another sister did not survive.
Harimoto went on to enjoy an outstanding career, joining the Toei Flyers in 1959 with whom he spent 16 years before later representing the Yomiuri Giants and the Lotte Orions.
He won seven batting titles, including four in a row from 1967 to 1970, a feat equalled several decades later by Ichiro Suzuki. He retired in 1981 after playing 2,752 games.
Harimoto helped launch South Korea’s KBO baseball league in 1982 before embarking on a career in baseball commentary and punditry.
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Sports
Mike Tomlin’s NFL debut for NBC: He needs the ‘tapeworm’ to reach his TV potential
The biggest NFL TV signing of the offseason, NBC’s rookie Mike Tomlin, dropped one of his Tomlinisms almost immediately as he assessed the Super Bowl-winning Seattle Seahawks before their game against the New England Patriots.
Tomlin described how defending champions can be either “hungry or driven.” He then mentioned a “tapeworm.” His overall point was that as the hunted, not the hunter, you have to want it more.
While it was a bit confusing, he could have been detailing his move from Super Bowl-winning Pittsburgh Steelers coach to studio analyst.
Though Tomlin brought much-needed gravitas to the remodeled “Football Night in America” in his regular-season debut, his performance left more of a question than a verdict: To borrow his terminology, does he have a “tapeworm”-like drive for TV or not?
For sure, Tomlin has a lot of potential. His on-air presence is exceptional, as you want to know what he is going to say. He looked pretty comfortable on set and had the signals down on where to look as Maria Taylor quarterbacked a revamped NBC pre-game show that will be on the road every week.
Tomlin was a bit tepid, as it definitely wasn’t fully clear whether this is just a timeout in his coaching career or if he’s going full John Madden, leaving his whistle behind for good for TV. He provided some insight, but it was a little see-no-evil, without a “Wow” moment.
The Seahawks’ injuries on defense? Well, that could be a “blessing in disguise,” Tomlin decided, as Seattle’s head coach Mike McDonald might be inclined to keep the game plans simple and players can be looser. Half-full stuff, for sure.
Tomlin is just 54, even though it feels like he has been around the NFL forever. When Taylor introduced Tomlin at the top of the pregame, she teased that the crew will have to tame Tomlin’s urge to put a coach’s headset on.
It was a warm and appropriate way to bring Tomlin on board. Just like the man he succeeded in Pittsburgh, CBS’ Bill Cowher, Tomlin’s name is probably going to float around every big coaching job that opens. Cowher consistently said no. Will Tomlin?
Tomlin has been high on TV executives’ wish lists for a long time. He received a big contract from NBC that, according to sources with knowledge of his deal but who were not authorized to speak publicly, is a bit back-loaded to entice him to stay longer. NBC clearly wants to build around Taylor and Tomlin.
NBC made a good decision to change its format. Its studio show has consistently been the most-watched on Sundays because it is wedged between the end of the afternoon games and the national spotlight matchup in primetime. It had too many people on the show and cut loose Tony Dungy, Rodney Harrison, Jac Collinsworth and Matthew Berry. A new, improved dynamic was immediately evident: Less is more for each analyst.
Tomlin joined holdovers Taylor, Devin McCourty, Jason Garrett and insider Mike Florio. It felt a little bigger, though the format was irregular for “Football Night in America.” The crew focused on previewing the opening night game, rather than reacting to an afternoon slate of games, like it will the rest of the season.
The show’s best moment belonged to McCourty. After Taylor and Tomlin mimicked shadow boxing following a Seattle segment about building team chemistry, McCourty said how his old Patriots teams used to unwind with some “trasketball,” setting up garbage pail hoops to shoot. But after a late-season loss, Tom Brady cut the basket, saying, “Hey guys, it’s playoff time, let’s focus.”
Tomlin, who was younger than 39-year-old McDonald when he won his Super Bowl with the Steelers in 2009, can take us inside locker rooms and mindsets. How a coach translates that to TV is what breeds success. So while the tapeworm bit had its moments, it needs to be a little better designed to showcase Tomlin’s unique insights.
“I think you learn about yourself,” Tomlin said. “Not only as individuals, but as a collective after you win a world championship. You learn whether or not you are hungry or you’re driven. Certainly, hunger can be satisfied.
“Driven is like a tapeworm. You want to do business when you are in their position with driven people. You need to minimize and eliminate the hungry and really elevate the driven because that’s what it is going to take to answer is some drive, and it’s different being the hunted as opposed to the hunters.”
Throughout the night, Tomlin had a few more quality Tomlinisms, including describing Jaxon Smith-Njigba as “running water,” seemingly to allude to the smoothness of his route running.
To reach the next level, Tomlin will need to reveal hard truths without regard for future jobs.
At halftime, he showed a flash as the NBC crew previewed Thursday night’s San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams game in Melbourne. The 49ers arrived a week or so ago, while the Rams flew in just a day before, taking a completely opposite approach to the time difference. Tomlin was definitely behind San Francisco’s plan.
That is what we need more of from him. It’s probably in him to be a star. How driven is he to succeed on TV? Does he have a tapeworm or not?
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