Entertainment
Q3 2026 Horror Box Office: Why Every Hit Can’t Be the Next ‘Obsession’
Hollywood fell so hard for “Obsession” that now it wants every new horror movie to look and act like that one. There’s a useful word for that kind of all-consuming romantic fixation: limerence.
Coined by psychologist Dorothy Tennov in 1979, limerence describes a state of extreme infatuation fueled by a prolonged yearning for approval or reciprocation. A little encouragement can go a long way for a person with limerence, and without help, they can wind up imagining an entire future with someone based on evidence that, at most, supports dinner. (No cat for me, thanks!)
Produced for a reported $750,000 and grossing more than $500 million worldwide, of course Curry Barker’s “Obsession” gave the industry so much to daydream about that it started to hear wedding bells. An original low-budget indie became a global hit. Who wouldn’t want another?
But yearning for the next “Obsession” is different from creating a theatrical market where more emerging artists with ambitious projects can thrive. And measuring every new release against Barker’s singular result risks not only overlooking what other movies have accomplished — but drawing the wrong conclusions about why some films fell short in ways that mattered to them.
In Q3, Zach Cregger’s “Resident Evil” arrived big, while “Buddy” slowly but surely built a major hit without becoming an “Obsession”-sized win. “Evil Dead Burn” and “Insidious: Out of the Further” tested whether franchise expectations still matched those sequels’ costs, and smaller releases, like “Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma” and “It Ends,” reminded analysts to use the appropriate framework when considering their financial success.
Wide releases couldn’t rescue “Ice Cream Man” or “Onslaught,” but “Colony” offered a strong case for finding great movies beyond U.S. domestic grosses. Plus, thrillers, like “The End of Oak Street” and “Hope,” broadened the genre conversation, just as the hunt for YouTube’s next breakout filmmaker heads back into theaters this October — where new indie studio, Hades Films, is already taking serious swings at connecting with Gen Z horror fans through offerings like “The Influencer Project,” starring Chiara King.
Considered together, the box office results from the last three months offer a view of the business that’s more complicated than finding Hollywood’s next dream date. Scary movies, by nature, demand room for experimentation that can draw out all kinds of different audiences. And the horror genre’s long-term well-being depends on decision-makers learning to love more than the exception to a rule they wrote.
Here are six lessons from the summer box office, and what they say about horror post-“Obsession.”
1. “Obsession” Grew, Where “Resident Evil” Arrived
By September, “the next ‘Obsession’” was already an industry shopping brief; Gersh agent Julien Levesque, for example, told TheWrap that TIFF buyers were hunting for exactly that. But Q3’s biggest horror newcomer, “Resident Evil,” took a very different route to becoming a hit.
For Sony, Zach Cregger’s third horror feature opened to $60.2 million domestically. That’s more than triple the $17.2 million that launched Curry Barker’s dating nightmare for Focus Features back in May. And through its first 13 days, “Resident Evil” collected $110.6 million, whereas “Obsession” made just $73.5 million over the same stretch.

Cregger’s film was comfortably ahead at that stage judging by ticket sales alone. But the two titles’ trajectories diverged rapidly. “Resident Evil” fell 62 percent in its second weekend, when “Obsession” increased 39 percent — and then grew another 14 percent in weekend three.
Of course, Sony’s adaptation of a Capcom video game had two kinds of recognition working for it. First, it’s a familiar horror property that’s done massive numbers before. And second, it’s part of Cregger’s own developing reputation after “Barbarian” and the Oscar-winning “Weapons.”
The director’s name gave this “Resident Evil” installment a special identity beyond its historically tortured franchise, and effectively paired an established audience with the promise of something creatively fresh. “Obsession,” on the other hand, was praised precisely because it seems to come out of nowhere. For filmmakers like Barker, Cregger’s career offers one possible path from an original horror film to a larger studio assignment. But those opportunities also bring different financial obligations; “Resident Evil” carried a reported $75 million production budget.
Neither opening-weekend grosses nor behind-the-scenes price tags can settle these films’ respective profitability right now. But they do show how horror buzz develops: either through the demonstrated value of anticipation or the shock and awe that comes from exceeding it.
2. “Buddy” Was a Huge Hit, Even Without Making History
“Buddy” didn’t need half a billion dollars to justify its existence; it was unicorn was enough!
Casper Kelly’s fever dream set inside a terrifying children’s TV show finished September with $26.6 million domestically. That’s against a reported $3 million production budget, and nearly five times its $5.5 million opening — reflecting a remarkable run for a truly unusual and artful horror-comedy that never played more than 1,771 theaters.
The “Obsession” comparison is tempting here, too. After “Buddy” opened, Fangoria asked whether it could follow Barker’s film through strong word of mouth (while explicitly cautioning that nobody at the publication was predicting it would actually make $500 million). “Buddy” subsequently increased its second-weekend gross by 6 percent, spurring an expansion from its opening in 1,277 theaters. It also enjoyed the benefit of the Labor Day holiday (“Obsession” got Memorial Day, coincidentally), and fell a manageable 38 percent the weekend after that.

The film’s memorable marketing campaign also continued to give audiences a specific reason to be curious about “Buddy.” Distributors Roadside and Saban leaned into Kelly’s Adult Swim pedigree (he’s behind the programming block’s legendary “Too Many Cooks” short), using teasers that gradually exposed the sinister underside of a seemingly recognizable media format.
The pitch sold Kelly’s sensibility alongside his killer, orange mascot, and resulted in a kind of “Five Nights at Freddy’s”-type affection among audiences with more of an indie spirit. Production costs and ticket sales can’t establish profitability alone, but the scale does matter.
“Buddy” found an audience large enough to make its modest opening the beginning of a meaningful theatrical run, and treating that result as somehow lesser than “Obsession” misses what’s really important here: There is a viable business in giving distinctive indie horror movies room to grow without demanding that every effort become a once-in-a-decade event.
3. For Studio Sequels, Cost and Expectations Still Had to Match
Obviously, “Insidious” and “Evil Dead” had benchmarks that were way more relevant than “Obsession”: their own previous installments. And those comparisons reveal two very different degrees of franchise wear for the studios still stewarding them.
Sony’s “Insidious: Out of the Further” opened to $25.1 million domestically and reached $65.4 million by September 30. That opening was down 24 percent from 2023’s “The Red Door,” which ultimately collected $82.2 million domestically. That said, with a reported $18 million production budget and worldwide grosses reaching $168.3 million by October 4, the new installment still demonstrated substantial commercial strength.

From Warner Bros., “Evil Dead Burn” faced a much sharper contraction. Its $13.7 million opening led to $32.2 million domestically, and earned less than half of the $67.4 million pulled in by “Evil Dead Rise” (which fittingly also came out in 2023). Worldwide, “Burn” collected $72.4 million against $147.3 million for “Rise,” despite its reported production budget increased from $15 million to $20 million. In that sense, Warner Bros. was spending more to reach a smaller audience, and that’s a problem even without “Obsession” looming over it.
Neither sequel is a simple referendum on how audiences feel about familiar IP right now, but with the superhero machine starting back up after a rough few years for Marvel, it’s vital to remember that tentpoles produce hugely influential data — even when the stories of how they find their audiences are considerably less interesting.
4. Limited Releases Needed Their Own Benchmark
“Obsession” forced Hollywood to recognize that original horror can mean blockbuster business. But that doesn’t mean every original horror film was built for the same audience, or given the same opportunity to reach one.
Jane Schoenbrun’s “Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma” opened in five theaters, collecting $249,606 for a per-theater average just shy of $50,000. MUBI eventually expanded it to 1,036 locations, and its domestic run reached $6.8 million. That’s a far more impressive trajectory than simply observing that it made a fraction of “Obsession.”
Schoenbrun’s own filmography offers a useful comparison. Their last film, “I Saw the TV Glow,” earned $4.9 million domestically in 2024, and peaked at 469 theaters. Alternatively, “Camp Miasma” increased that gross by roughly 37 percent — with more than twice the maximum theater count. That suggests Schoenbrun found a much larger theatrical audience, but still raises legitimate questions about how the industry is reaching it.

Alex Ullom’s “It Ends” operated on a smaller scale still, making roughly $1 million domestically from a release that peaked at only 340 theaters. Its expansion was brief, with grosses falling dramatically as theaters dropped it. A different benchmark doesn’t mean immunity from scrutiny. Rather, the point is to ask useful questions about what worked and what didn’t.
How strongly did “Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma” connect in its initial markets? How well did that interest survive expansion? What did the “It Ends” release actually cost? And could it have actually done better on streaming? “Obsession” may illustrate what a theatrical breakout can achieve, but it doesn’t get at the heart of specialized releases working on sustainable terms.
5. Wider Releases Couldn’t Save These Flops
Some films deserved better rubrics for success. These ones just needed people to buy tickets.
For A24, Adam Wingard’s “Onslaught” opened in 1,918 theaters, collecting just $1.9 million. That’s an average of just $998 per location for the entire weekend. In its second weekend, the release collapsed by 86 percent — although, it remained in 1,252 theaters. By the end of September, its domestic total was approximately $3.3 million against a reported $15 million production budget. Evidently, its initial bookings substantially exceeded demand.

Similarly, for his self-proclaimed Horror Section, Eli Roth’s “Ice Cream Man” followed a painfully discouraging trajectory with $2.1 million opening across 1,592 theaters. That’s an average of $1,330 per venue. The following weekend, the theater count contracted to 660 and its gross fell 89 percent to $231,000. Neither the concept nor Roth’s name produced sustained business.
Here, it’s “Buddy” that offers the more helpful comparison. Kelly’s surprise hit opened in fewer theaters than either “Onslaught” or “Ice Cream Man,” and it still earned more than both openings combined. Then, it expanded. Grosses alone can’t explain what went wrong for Wingard and Roth, but those figures do establish that theatrical availability wasn’t enough.
6. Hollywood Hasn’t Found Its Next Big YouTuber Yet

Before Hollywood became obsessed with Curry Barker, Markiplier opened the year in a submarine full of blood. The wildly popular let’s play YouTuber independently released “Iron Lung” — which debuted to $18.2 million domestically in January and collected $51.2 million worldwide. All that against a reported $3 million production budget.
In the spring, Barker brought his own online apprenticeship to Hollywood via the comedy sketches he made with “Obsession” star Cooper Tomlinson on their channel, That’s a Bad Idea, where they also posted viral horror projects, “The Chair” and “Milk & Serial.” Barker told IndieWire YouTube gave him somewhere to practice filmmaking and to find viewers.
After Markiplier, Barker, and Kane Parsons’ YouTube-borne “Backrooms,” Q3 didn’t deliver another comparable arrival from the digital platform. October, however, will offer at least two striking tests of what online audiences can help build — both coming from the same new indie horror studio.
Hades Films just opened “The Influencer Project,” starring content creator Chiara King, on October 2. Later this month, it will also partner with Dead Meat’s James A. Janisse and Chelsea Rebecca for “Fresh Meat”: a horror anthology featuring shorts selected from over 500 submissions with audiences voting for the winner. That’s a concrete investment in auteur discovery, using an established online community to help introduce unfamiliar faces to theaters.
They’ll share the Halloween runway with “Other Mommy” on October 9, “Whalefall” and “Crawlers” on October 16, and “Clayface” on October 23 — meaning, there’s plenty left to scare up and, if the situation warrants it, get obsessed with before the end of the year. Barker will also receive IndieWire’s inaugural Future of Filmmaking Award at its namesake event, an artistic summit, on October 17 in Los Angeles.
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NCIS: Origins Boss on 2026 Gibbs’ Dangerous New Mission
Note: This story contains spoilers from “NCIS: Origins” Season 3, Episode 1.
“NCIS: Origins” couldn’t take Leroy Jethro Gibbs out of retirement for just any reason in 2026 — so the stakes couldn’t be higher.
The CBS spinoff’s Season 3 premiere, titled “Don’t You Forget About Me,” saw Mark Harmon return to his role as the iconic leader of the flagship NCIS. He was still in his peaceful cabin in the outskirts of Alaska before his dog felt a disturbance. Not too long after, he was shot — and after pretending to have lost his life he heard the one thing that would get him out of seclusion: Someone else in his circle as the next target.
“Him being shot wouldn’t be enough to get him to leave,” showrunner David J. North told TheWrap of the brutal premiere twist. “But hearing that someone else he cares about is in danger is. At the end of the day, he’s a protector”
Details on what exactly brings the killers to Gibbs’ doorsteps, and whether their next target is Lala (Mariel Molino) or someone else from his past, will unfold as the 10-episode third season of “NCIS: Origins” rolls along.
And there’s plenty of drama in the 1990s, too — with Randy (Caleb Foote) barely surviving being kidnapped in last season’s finale and learning that filing classified documents in his computer carried a lot more danger than he anticipated, as well as Lala and Gibbs (Austin Stowell) finally acting out on their feelings, only for Franks (Kyle Schmid) to interrupt them and inspire Lala to get cold feet once again.
Below, North breaks down the Season 3 premiere’s biggest moments, and why he predicts “NCIS” franchise fans will be on the edge of their seats all season long. This conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

TheWrap: What an exciting start to Season 3, with present-day Gibbs taking center stage. What made this the right time to get him out of Alaska?
David J. North: There have been ongoing discussions with Mark and I, and we were both so happy with how we had left it when I wrote his final episode of the original “NCIS.” But it just felt right. It’d been almost six years, and I saw the reaction when Mark appeared in the crossover episode with the mothership last season, so we started talking.
With Mark, he’s always game. He just wanted to know what story was in my mind and why, because for Gibbs to leave that place of peace that he searched for for so long, it’d have to be a really big deal. Him being shot wouldn’t be enough to get him to leave it. But hearing that someone else he cared about or knew is in danger is. At the end of the day, he’s a protector.
After fooling his attackers, Gibbs jets off to start what he calls the final chapter in the story of her, does that mean Season 3 is the final chapter for “Origins” too?
No. This is the next evolution of it. We’re going to learn a lot more about the story of her, and we are going to learn a lot more about Lala and what’s happened and why we never heard about her. But this is really just the beginning.
That might include finding out if Lala really is still alive and all that’s happened in all these years, and you’ve promised old faces also coming into the picture as Gibbs solves this present-day mission. What can you tease?
I will tell the “NCIS” fans that they are not going to be disappointed this year. Gibbs in 2026 has perhaps the biggest mission of his life, and he is not going to be alone. He has his people that adore him and are loyal to him, and they’re going to be there. He’s been there for them always, and they’re going to be there for him.
Lala and Gibbs had their romantic moment in the Season 2 finale, but their baggage gets in the way again and Lala puts a pause on things seemingly forever. How does this set up their journey for Season 3?
The kiss was a really big deal at the end of Season 2, and now this season, of course, Frank’s interrupted that moment, and Lala is having a bit of cold feet, which is understandable considering that they are teammates, and more importantly, that Gibbs ran off and got married on a whim when they were having these feelings for each other.
But all the fans that love these two, the ship name I think is DominGibbs, are going to be really thrilled with this season. Things will progress, I’ll tell you that.

Randy survives his kidnapping and torture, and seems unaffected by what happened after he is rescued. What’s next for him as this mystery unfolds?
He’ll have some residual effects from what happened, pf course, it was pretty traumatic. But he learned in Season 2 that he has to be all in or not, and that this is what the job is and who he is. It’s not just what he does. It’s it’s who he is. J
Junie and Junior and this job are what matters to him, so he bounces back pretty quickly.
This season is going to be 10 episodes right? Did you have to adjust anything from this epic season to accommodate for the shorter order?
Yes, we jam packed 10 episodes with just unbelievable action and fun and twists and turns and two different storylines. So each week, we’re throwing it all out there. It’s been great.
By the time I really started thinking about this season in depth, I knew it was 10 so I just built it that way from the beginning. It does change things a little bit. Sometimes in broadcast TV, there’s some weeks where the episode isn’t as sharp as you would want it to be, but it’s fun.
But this season for us, there’s no weeks off. I don’t think any “NCIS” fans are going to want to miss any of the episodes.
“NCIS: Origins airs new episodes Tuesdays on CBS and streams the next day on Paramount+.
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NCIS: New York Plot: What Brings LL Cool J Back Home
Note: This story contains spoilers from “NCIS: New York” Episode 1.
“NCIS: New York” came as a surprise for many in the fandom and TV world. And now we know what’s bringing one of the franchise’s most beloved characters back into the fold.
Of course we’re talking about NCIS senior special agent Sam Hanna, the former Navy seal played by LL Cool J — and who previously headlined 14 seasons and more than 300 episodes of “NCIS: Los Angeles.” Now the character, a native New Yorker like the actor and rapper who portrays him, returns home to headline a new series set in a new city, alongside a new partner played by “Hawaii Five-0” veteran Scott Caan.
“You get a chance to see some of the vulnerabilities, the uncertainty,” LL Cool J said in a New York Times interview of his character’s re-introduction. “Because don’t forget: He hasn’t been home in so long. He’s almost like a stranger in this place.”
Here’s how Sam Hanna returned full time to the “NCIS” and his old home, and what makes him stick around for more.
Close to Home
We find Sam in full internal agent mode at the start of “NCIS: New York,” working a case in Dubai while getting repeated calls from Jack Halloway — urging him to call him back as soon as he can.
After some sleuthing and an epic fight scene with some international terrorists, Sam calls his friend back. But it’s too late, he has been shot dead in New York City and the crime scene was staged to look like a suicide. Jack’s death brings him into the jurisdiction of NCIS special agent Nick Schaeffer (Caan), whose day off is interrupted when his team is assigned the murder.
Sam reveals he was close with Jack’s father, and he’d known the victim his whole life — even being a member of his wedding party. He’s convinced that his death was not a suicide, given he’s about to welcome a baby into the world and he was happy both professionally and with his wife. At the behest of special agent in charge Robyn Wells (Jennifer Beals), Sam joins the team to investigate the suspicious kill. He assures Nick that he’s only here for one case.

Instant chemistry
Seconds into meeting one another, Nick and Sam kick off the banter — trading jokes about Sam’s massive size and Nick’s shorter build. The rest of the team also seems to blend smoothly, including Addy (Jacqueline Byers), the recently dumped special agent Wyatt (Shane Harper) and computer expert Sean (Devin Druid), who made a deal to help NCIS in exchange for not going to prison for hacking into the police pension fund.
We even get an appearance from flagship “NCIS” scientist Jimmy Palmer (Brian Dietzen), who confirms Jack’s murder and tells Sam he’ll be staying put in NYC for a while given the conspiracy at the center of the kill.
As they work the case, Nick and Sam bond over their shared experience being raised in New York City. Nick opens up about losing members of his family in the line of duty — as both cops and firefighters — while Nick gives condolences to Sam for the loss of his wife back in “NCIS: Los Angeles” Season 8.
As the case unfolds, tensions between Nick and Sam rise when they find a big pile of cash in the boat Jack was caring for. But Sean finds a clue that leads back to one of the dock supervisors, while Nick plots to convince Sam to join the team permanently.
Eventually they learn that Jack had uncovered an operation to bring contracted killers into the States on a mission to kidnap an oligarch’s daughter. He was killed to keep the operation secret, leaving a new mother-to-be alone. The team follows a tip to a club in Bushwick and brings the bad guys to justice, allowing Jack to be given top honors from the government after his death.

New York calling
After solving the case, Nick takes Sam for a drive to his favorite spot in the city, and thanks him for saving his life during the mission.
Nick tells Sam “New York needs Big Sam Hanna.” Sam hesitates, as he feels like a stranger in the city that he called home. Nick tells him that running away from himself and his past never helped him, and that accepting his calling to serve in the city is the only time he’s been truly happy. Sam accuses Nick of overselling the pitch, but eventually softens.
“I think you’re the best at what you do and I want to work with the best,” Nick says.
“All right, let’s see how it goes,” Sam says sealing the deal. We’ll see if this new team can be another jewel in the “NCIS” universe.
“NCIS: New York” airs new episodes Tuesdays on CBS and streams the next day on Paramount+.
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