The UFC is back with two more title fights and a bunch of fun matchups scattered throughout the card. I’ll be breaking down both championship matchups as well as another of my favorite fights from the card.

If you want to chat about any additional fights, leave a comment below.

Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry

The welterweight title is back on the line as pound-for-pound beast Islam Makhachev takes on surging prospect Ian Machado Garry.

Makhachev is 28-1 as a pro, and is among the most dominant fighters in the sport today. He’s an elite wrestler and control grappler, and has proven to be a submission threat on the mat as well.

There have been very few opponents who’ve been able to stuff Makhachev’s takedowns and keep the fight upright, and I don’t necessarily see that changing any time soon.

On the feet, Makhachev is a low-volume striker, but I’ve always liked his ability to control exchanges and limit damage. He lands 2.45 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 1.45 per minute with a 61 percent defensive rate.

The only loss on Makhachev’s resume is a quick KO against Adriano Martins back in 2015. He’s been hurt by others too, primarily Alexander Volkanovski, but Makhachev outboxed Dustin Poirier in their recent title fight in 2024.

Makhachev, 34, may slow down at some point, and if you can force stand up exchanges, at least you have a chance to beat him. But he’s an elite wrestler with a strong process and should continue to win most of his matchups.

Garry has the Irish crowd behind him and, like his fellow Irishmen, has a presence on the mic. It’s been his skills in the Octagon that have set him apart. He currently holds a 17-1 pro record. That only loss came to Shavkat Rakhmonov in 2024 when Garry had Rakhmonov on the ropes and in a deep submission attempt late in that fight.

Garry primarily excels at distance where he can use his length and precision striking. He is five inches taller than Makhachev with four extra inches of reach.

Garry lands 4.78 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.86 per minute with a 52 percent striking defense. He’s been hurt badly a couple of times but has survived, and he’s the type to hurt opponents more via accumulation than one big power shot.

Makhachev is likely going to continue his pursuit of the takedown, and Garry will try to defend them and scramble up. At distance, Garry may not dominate but he should throw more volume, and his point fighting style is enough to give him a real shot in extended exchanges.

I am not completely sold Makhachev runs away with this. Garry defends takedowns at 80 percent and just stuffed all of Belal Muhammad’s takedowns.

However, Garry has also been grounded by Rakhmonov, Song Kenan, Gabe Green and Darian Weeks, which isn’t the best list of wrestlers. I’m pretty confident Makhachev can get him down eventually, and while Garry can survive, I’m skeptical he can get back up.

The most likely outcomes in my mind are Makhachev controlling Garry for the majority of the fight and winning a clear decision, or perhaps submitting him. Garry is live to land one big shot but that will be tough, and otherwise will need to win multiple rounds with some volume and damage.

I think Garry is crafty enough and confident enough to be a formidable opponent and a live underdog, but this would still be a real upset if he were able to pull it off.

Makhachev is favored at -330 and I think the odds are reasonable. I’m not rushing to the window to bet Makhachev at this price, but I’m not rushing to play Garry either.

I think this is a difficult matchup to bet on honestly. Makhachev by decision is probably the most likely outcome but you’re only getting that at +120, and his submission prop is +200 which is also live.

I won’t be heavily invested in this fight from a betting standpoint. I think the odds are pretty fair and I expect Makhachev to win, but I can’t say with any confidence what the method will be.

Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson

We have a pair of grapplers squaring off for the women’s strawweight title with champion Mackenzie Dern taking on Gillian Robertson.

I don’t expect Dern to hold this title long, and I think there are a lot of red flags in her profile. While she’s an incredible submission grappler, her lack of wrestling is a real problem.

Dern only lands 0.93 takedowns per 15 minutes with an 18 percent accuracy, which is atrocious. She’s also defending takedowns at 37 percent, which is just as poor.

When she gets taken down, it’s not a major problem because she’s so skilled from her back. Virna Jandiroba just took her down nine times and didn’t do much with that top control. I still would prefer Dern to be landing takedowns of her own where her top game is elite.

On the feet, Dern has improved greatly but she’s still mediocre, and not super defensively sound. She is aggressive, and lands 3.47 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.93 per minute with a 51 percent defensive rate.

I just worry that Dern will fail on takedowns, get taken down herself, and be forced into striking affairs where she’s not likely to win.

Conversely, I’ve been a big fan of Robertson because she has a process of taking opponents down, controlling them and submitting them. I’ve backed her numerous times throughout her career when she’s facing off against weaker grapplers, and she’s largely come through.

However, I think this is a terrible matchup for Robertson and I would be surprised if she beat Dern.

One primary reason is that Dern is a better submission grappler than Robertson. While Robertson excels smashing weak opponents who cannot grapple, she won’t have that luxury here. If she takes Dern down, at best she might be able to hold her down for a few minutes, but I’d be shocked if she posed any legitimate submission threat. If Dern gets on top of Robertson, though, the fight could be over, and a submission for Dern wouldn’t surprise me.

Robertson is also defending takedowns at a poor 38 percent. So although Dern’s wrestling is somewhat weak, she’s now getting an opponent who wants to engage on the mat and one who can’t defend takedowns either.

Furthermore, Robertson is even worse than Dern on the feet. Dern at least throws aggressively, while Robertson has really never committed to striking exchanges or won them. She has essentially no striking-based wins.

Robertson only lands 2.71 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.86 with a 56 percent defensive rate. Maybe she can beat Dern there, but I would favor Dern.

I don’t want to get carried away on Dern, considering the red flags in her profile, but she should win this fight. She’s a better grappler and striker than Robertson, and even where Robertson is best, which is in top position, it may still be an advantage for Dern who could pose a submission threat.

Dern is -205 to win which I think is borderline playable. At -205, I feel a little uncomfortable because there are ways where Robertson makes this competitive, but I like Dern here, and I’ll probably have action on her.

Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes

One of my favorite fights on the slate, I think Jalin Turner and Kauê Fernandes will slug it out.

Turner is an offensively prolific fighter who has already earned eight finishes in the UFC, including in his last bout where he knocked out Edson Barboza in the first round. He’s a big, long sharpshooter with power.

Turner has lost four times since the start of 2023 though. He retired and then unretired. I’m not sold where his head is at.

Fernandes has been crushing his opponents in the last few fights, after losing by decision to Marc Diakiese in his UFC debut. He’s proving to be a dangerous striker at distance.

Primarily, Fernandes has been crushing opponents with his leg kicks. He’s throwing nearly 32 percent of his strikes to the legs, and opponents cannot take them.

Fernandes has some concerns as a lower volume striker, and his wrestling is mediocre. He’s also a bit small. He is six inches shorter than Turner with four fewer inches of reach.

I honestly like Fernandes as the underdog in this fight, where he’s currently lined at +138 to win. I wouldn’t say this is a smash bet, but my gut feeling is he will win.

If he loses, I’m guessing Turner beats him up immediately. Fernandes has never been finished, but there’s a size gap here and Turner is dangerous offensively.

I don’t think Turner is the best fighting through adversity or in extended fights. More importantly, I think Fernandes might try to destroy his legs and if he can do that, I don’t think Turner will be able to recover.

Fernandes is only absorbing 1.42 significant strikes per minute with a 62 percent defensive rate. On paper, he’s the better defensive fighter while Turner is defending strikes at 41 percent.

Betting on leg kicks is not the safest thing, but Fernandes attacks them, and he’s had real success with them. Turner has long skinny legs and they’ll be easier to land on then his head, so I do think Fernandes will at least try to throw damaging strikes. I like him in singular striking exchanges.

Neither fighter wrestles much so I’m expecting this fight to play out on the feet. It’s still a high-variance bout, but one I lean toward the underdog surprising and pulling off the upset.

This is certainly a step up in competition for Fernandes, so I can understand why he’s the underdog here. I’m excited to watch it play out either way. I’ll have a small personal play on him at these dog odds.