Andy Burnham, 2025 (Alamy)

3 min read15 May

Former minister Josh Simons announced on Thursday that he would be giving up his Makerfield constituency – after being elected for the first time just two years ago – to allow the Greater Manchester mayor a shot at re-entering Parliament via a by-election.

The Labour Party is now expected to open up its candidate selection process for Makerfield imminently, at which point Burnham will formally ask for the waiver to stand despite being a mayor.

The core group of Labour’s national executive committee (NEC) officers will then meet to discuss the waiver – a meeting sources expect to take place this weekend. It is widely expected that Burnham’s request will be granted, after Downing Street briefed that it would not block Burnham as it did in January.

NEC officers will either make the decision themselves or refer it to a meeting of the full NEC, which next meets on Tuesday.

Views still vary on whether to refer the decision, with concerns that doing so would set a precedent. On the other hand, it is understood that reprieve from the scrutiny the nine officers have received on their decisions around Burnham would be welcomed by some on a personal level.

NEC officers are expected to meet this weekend and, while it is possible that the vote is not unanimous, they are likely to approve Burnham’s waiver.

While Burnham’s bid is highly likely to be approved, senior figures have reservations over the costs incurred his potential return. If successful, it would trigger a mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester and potentially a subsequent leadership contest.

One Labour NEC member told PoliticsHome these costs would be “bankruptcy territory” for the party.

It is understood that the by-election will involve sending a number of Labour HQ staff door-knocking in the seat, which will involve acommodation and travel costs.

Makerfield comes after the Gorton and Denton by-election, which a Labour source said was the costliest in the party’s history, as well as the May 7 elections.

If Burnham wins the by-election, the party will also be faced with a mayoral election in Manchester, which is expected to cost the party hundreds of thousands of pounds and the public likely more than £4m.

Others rejected claims of anxiety over party finances, however, in anticipation of a Burnham leadership attracting new party members. One minister said:“We will get a lot of new members with Andy – we will be fine.”

Labour has already put on a large number of canvassing sessions in Makerfield, and on Friday dozens of activists and MPs made the journey to the constituency to join the effort.

Deputy leader Lucy Powell told the FBU conference on Friday morning that she had it on “good authority that absolutely no attempt” to block Burnham would be made. She also revealed she would be the political lead in the by-election. 

“None of the concerns have changed, but the party would explode if he wasn’t allowed to apply,” said one Labour MP.

“He’s got a better chance than anyone else, but Reform will be very strong there – it’s like a 100 per cent Denton seat with no Gorton-type voters.”

PoliticsHome understands that Burnham allies have been eyeing Makerfield as a potential constituency for weeks, as it is next door to where the Manchester mayor lives in Leigh.

The seat will be a tough test for Burnham after Reform UK had success in the wards of the constituency at the recent local elections.

In its eight wards, Reform won 50.4 per cent of the vote while Labour secured just 22.7 per cent. Burnham supporters point out that at the 2024 Manchester mayoral election Burnham won 62 per cent in Makerfield.

The Labour Party has been contacted for comment.

(Alamy)

5 min read15 May

At last week’s local elections, Labour lost more than 1,000 councillors to Reform UK, the Greens, and the Tories in its northern heartlands, London and even Wales, where it has held power since the Senedd’s inception. 

Starmer attempted to reset his premiership with a speech on Monday but it fell flat, leading to more than 90 MPs calling for him to resign, four junior ministers qutting government, and Wes Streeting leaving his job as health secretary.

Meanwhile, former minister Josh Simons announced on Thursday that he would be giving up his Makerfield constituency – after being elected for the first time just two years ago – to allow Burnham a shot at re-entering Parliament via a by-election.

The core group of Labour’s national executive committee (NEC) officers will then meet to discuss the waiver – a meeting sources expect to take place this weekend. It is widely expected that Burnham’s request will be granted, after Downing Street briefed that it would not block Burnham as it did in January.

The Prime Minister remains a damaged figure with his authority ebbing away each day. Even serving ministers are now openly calling for the party’s ruling body to allow the Manchester mayor to stand as a candidate in Makerfield.

If he wins the by-election – which is far from a shoo-in – some MPs expect there to be a ‘Burnham coronation’, where he becomes leader without the contest going to the members. 

Winning Makerfield would also increase Burnham’s standing in the Parliamentary Labour Party, showing his colleagues that he can defeat Reform UK at the ballot box.

“There are going to have to be some big pivots,” one MP on the Right of the party told PoliticsHome, “but I think he is the only one who can unite the party.”

While Burnham’s bid is highly likely to be approved, senior figures have reservations over the costs incurred over his potential return. If successful, it would trigger a mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester and potentially a subsequent leadership contest.

Yet many are expecting there to be a surge in the number of MPs joining the party and regularly donating to Labour in the wake of Burnham becoming Labour leader. 

“I think there will be [a bounce] – he’s clearly the members’ favourite,” a soft-Left source told PoliticsHome. “There’s a clear argument for allowing him back on the grounds of reviving the party as well as winning the by-election.”

On Friday morning, Team Burnham got their heads together for the first time this morning to think through what the campaign will look like. Many MPs and activists have also travelled up this morning to start campaigning for Labour ahead of what will be a hotly contested by-election.

So far there is no sign of who the Reform UK candidate will be. A name which is being circulated is Robert Kenyon, the Makerfield candidate who won 32 per cent in 2024. One aide told the Spectator magazine “he’s our Hannah Spencer,” referring to his job as a plumber. It would help the party emphasise its local roots in a high-profile, high-stakes race.

Meanwhile, Streeting’s stock has risen again after facing a barrage of briefing from ministers and No 10.

He resigned from Cabinet on Thursday after saying it was “clear” Starmer will not lead the Labour Party into the next general election. Streeting has also backed Burnham’s desire to be selected as the Labour candidate in the Makerfield by-election.

A Streeting supporter told PoliticsHome: “I think we have two great talents and Andy has had the freedom to say what he thinks and now Wes over the next few weeks will have the same freedom and people will be pleasantly surprised at the personality and ideas that emerge.”

Figures in No 10 were claiming he had just over half the number of MPs needed to trigger leadership election and formally challenge the prime minister. However, Streeting aides have since said that he has more than the required 81 MPs needed, but have claimed many of his supporters remain in government and stressed that they do not want to bring down the Prime Minister’s administration.

Streeting’s support comes from the moderate wing of the party and the 2024 intake of Labour MPs, particularly the Scottish PLP which includes Zubir Ahmed – who resigned as health minister this week – Mel Ward and Alan Gemell.

Out of all this Angela Rayner is likely to be the king maker in any leadership contest between Streeting and Burnham.

Rayner has dealt with her tax affairs with HMRC after paying back £40,000 in unpaid stamp duty. 

The Ashton-under-Lyne MP in a statement after the local elections said it was a grave mistake to block the Manchester mayor from running as a candidate in the Gorton and Denton by-election.

Fundamentally, only two candidates are likely have the numbers to challenge Starmer and they are Streeting and Burnham – if the latter can win a difficult by-election.

Burnham aides have been bandying around the acronym ABC – Andy By Conference, allowing him to settle in as Labour leader and set out a new vision by September to the party faithful in Liverpool.

Whatever happens, events seem to be out of the prime minister’s control and his authority irreparably wounded.

MPs, even those who have been loyal to him throughout this government, believe the end is near for the prime minister. Whether they like it or not, the majority of the PLP expect a new leader by the autumn – with a pivot to the Left.

1 min read15 May

The National Executive Committee (NEC) has announced it is allowing Burnham to run for selection in the Makerfield by-election, potentially giving him a route back to Parliament. The by-election will reportedly take place on 18 June.

If he wins the by-election and returns as an MP, this would make him eligible to launch a leadership challenge against Starmer.

The current Labour MP for Makerfield, Josh Simons, announced on Thursday that he was stepping down to make way for Burnham. However, the Manchester mayor will still have to win the selection to stand in the seat, and then win the by-election itself in an area where Reform UK has been polling strongly and performed well in last week’s local elections.

The NEC had previously blocked Burnham from standing in the Gorton & Denton by-election earlier this year, which the Green Party’s Hannah Spencer went on to win.

The timeline for the selection contest for the Makerfield by-election has also been announced by the NEC. Applications will close on Monday 18 May, and a selection meeting will take place on 21 May.