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With more distance from the 2026 Primetime Emmy nominations announcement, the biggest miscalculation I made was overestimating the popularity of HBO shows, and therefore underestimating just how popular some of the new Apple TV shows were with voters in the Television Academy.

It is still hard to discount the HBO Max series “Hacks” as a frontrunner in Comedy. It literally broke the record for most nominations for a single season of a comedy series, with 24. But Apple TV series “Widow’s Bay” getting 19 nominations after having only premiered about a month and a half before voting, with the last three episodes of its inaugural season not even being eligible, is nothing to shake at.

Unlike with the Drama categories, Apple TV has a real stronghold with voters deciding which comedies to award. It famously took “Hacks” until its third season to finally win the Outstanding Comedy Series Emmy because Apple TV’s blockbuster series “Ted Lasso” kept getting in the way. It also took until Season 4 for “Hacks” star Hannah Einbinder to win Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series. 

“Hacks” is primarily a star vehicle for Jean Smart in the eyes of Emmy voters, and there are no female leads on “Widow’s Bay,” so the seven-time Emmy winner will more than likely become the first woman to win Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series for the entire run of her show, but TV Academy members tend to favor a breakout over an established name, so “Widow’s Bay” discovery Kate O’Flynn is positioned really well to win over Einbinder in an upset. 

Her co-star Matthew Rhys will also more than likely win his first Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series for his work in “Widow’s Bay,” as Martin Short and Jason Segel, his two fellow nominees who also star in shows that got nominated for Outstanding Comedy Series this year, do not have as much momentum behind them as final voting approaches.

That leaves Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series as the only major comedy acting category up in the air. There isn’t the aforementioned breakout factor this time around. Every nominee has been nominated before. Therefore, it really may finally be time for screen icon Harrison Ford to win his first Emmy, three seasons deep into his Apple TV series “Shrinking.”

With the Drama categories, again recent Outstanding Drama Series winner “The Pitt” on HBO Max is the nominations leader, but freshman Apple TV series “Pluribus” is not that far behind. What makes the Drama races different is that Apple TV series have struggled much more to find its bearings here. Neither “The Morning Show” nor “Slow Horses” earned Outstanding Drama Series nominations for their first two seasons. And only “Severance” has ever been a frontrunner in the category, despite the streaming service having premiered dozens of drama series at this point.

The second season of “The Pitt” was not as well-received as the first, but that does not necessarily mean the HBO Max series suffered a sophomore slump. The bar was just set impossibly high, to the point where I’d say its Emmy-winning stars Noah Wyle and Katherine LaNasa are unimpeachable in the Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series and Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series categories, respectively. Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series is a bit shakier, as nominee Shawn Hatosy also won an Emmy last year for the same role as a guest star, while breakout Patrick Ball, who appears more often throughout the medical drama, did not receive an Emmy nomination at all for Season 1.

Vote-splitting happens less often than we anticipate, but there is a lot of room for “Task” star Tom Pelphrey to win instead, or even for “The Morning Show” star Billy Crudup to pull off another upset. The latter actor did best the stars of Emmy juggernauts like “Succession” and “Shōgun” after all, the two times he won the category.

The best hope “Pluribus” has of winning an acting category is star Rhea Seehorn earning her first ever Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series. It will not be easy, as she is nominated against Zendaya, who has won the category for every season of “Euphoria” so far, and “The Diplomat” star Keri Russell, who also (outrageously!) has never won an Emmy, and bested Seehorn at the Actor Awards recently. But a win for Seehorn would not just be the TV Academy members righting the wrong of her never winning for “Better Call Saul,” it would right the wrong of that AMC series going zero for 53 at the Emmys across its highly celebrated six season run.

On a smaller level, another one of my mistakes predicting the Emmy nominations this year was thinking that the FX show “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette” was more popular with voters than it actually ended up being. I would still put money on the breakout star Sarah Pidgeon winning the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie for her portrayal of the late Carolyn Bessette, but with the other categories, it’s all “Beef” Season 2 versus “DTF St. Louis.”

Not only did the first season of “Beef” dominate the limited series categories at the Emmys three years ago, it kicked off Netflix having a major winning streak in the majority of the limited series categories to date. All this to say, “Beef” having a nominee in each acting category bodes well for it to win even more Emmys. However, star Cailee Spaeny being snubbed in Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie still points to the show underperforming on nominations day, as well as it did. Meanwhile “DTF St. Louis” got not one, but two unexpected nominations for its detectives played by Richard Jenkins and Joy Sunday.

Ultimately, chips falling where they did, Oscar Isaac has the best hope of any “Beef” actor to win an Emmy, as all the main “DTF St. Louis” men submitted in the Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie category. His co-star Charles Melton has a lot of goodwill in his corner, with “Beef” being his first major role since “May December,” but it is hard not to label “DTF St. Louis” star David Harbour as the category frontrunner, stemming off of his Gotham TV Award win, among other factors.

His co-star Linda Cardellini is also another actress who has been a television staple, appearing in everything from “Freaks and Geeks” to “Mad Men” to “Dead to Me,” yet never having won an Emmy, so consider her the frontrunner for the aforementioned Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie category.

As far as the rest of the categories we cover, the Netflix film “Remarkably Bright Creatures” does not really have any competition in Outstanding Movie besides the fellow Netflix book adaptation “People We Meet on Vacation.”

For as much as the Outstanding Animated Program nominations were a surprise, the return season of “South Park” is still the frontrunner. Outstanding Reality Competition Program is a close race between “The Traitors” and “Survivor.”

Many are betting that all five Outstanding Variety Series nominees will win, since that is possible, but we still have them listed in what we assume would be the preferential order in our predictions.

And finally, the Documentary Emmys are more than likely going to the DGA Award-winning series “Mr. Scorsese” on Apple TV, and the heartstrings-tugging “Marty, Life is Short” documentary special on Netflix.

See IndieWire’s full list of 2026 Emmy predictions, complete with frontrunners, contenders, and long shots on our website. As a reminder, my email is majones@indiewire.com if you’d like to share any feedback.